In just about a month and a half, India would elect members of the 17th LokSabha. Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi are the most prominent faces locking horns for the Prime Ministerial post. The whole of India is nicely decked up by the political parties in order to garner votes. Election Commission of India (ECI) has decided to stage a seven-phase poll this time. Two phases have already concluded on 11th April and 18th April. The remaining phases of the polling would conclude by 19th May, while results would be announced on 23rd May.
Following are the economic changes that we can expect if UPA topples NDA to be elected to power in the 17th LokSabha elections:
Rahul Gandhi, the president of the Indian National Congress (INC), who is also the face of the UPA for the 2019 elections, has said that they would implement Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY), if elected. NYAY is a cash transfer programme and it pays out Rs 72,000 a year for households lying in the bottom 20% of the income distribution of India. NYAY is already trending and it would be interesting to see if the UPA Government can really implement it if elected.
The INC has said that they have consulted various global economists while framing NYAY. A notable economist consulted is Raghuram Rajan, a former Governor of RBI. Raghuram Rajan has confirmed the consultation and said that he would help in all his capabilities to implement NYAY for the betterment of poor. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Raghuram Rajan is made the Finance Minister if UPA is elected to power. But, P Chidambaram is the front runner for the post of Finance Minister if UPA comes to power.
Implementation of NYAY would cost about 1.4% of the GDP and this may not seem a big number. 1.4% of the Indian GDP translates to about Rs 3,60,000 Crores a year, which certainly looks staggering and is a very big commitment from the Government’s end. Implementation of NYAY could work in both good and bad ways.
The good thing about implementing NYAY is that it helps the poormake ends meet. They don’t have to struggle anymore as they are guaranteed to receive Rs 72,000 a year. The child labors can leave their work and return to schools/colleges as NYAY takes care of the family’s daily expenses. This is good on a long run. The bad thing about implementing NYAY is that it makes people lazy as they receive money without having to work. This may result in a reduction in the overall productivity of the country, which may cause a fall in GDP.
Congress has promised to fill the vacant 4 lakh jobs in the Central Government, Public Sector Institutions, Judiciary and Parliament by the end of March 2020. If this promise in their manifesto is really kept up, then it would reduce the joblessness in the country to some extent. INC has said that they would request all State Governments to fill all vacancies. This is going to increase the number of taxpayers and economy would boom due to this.
Congress has assured to enact the Direct Taxes Code within the first year of its governance, in order to review and replace the current GST laws with the GST 2.0. An upgrade from the current system to a single, moderate, standard rate of tax and e-way bill.
Congress has promised to defunct the NITI Aayog and constitute a new planning commission with redefined responsibilities. Decisions and schemes that this commission is going to come up with are surely going to impact the Indian economy.
Congress has promised to waive the outstanding farm loans. INC has planned to introduce a separate budget exclusively for farmers. It has plans of redesigning the Kisan Fasal Bima Yojana, if voted to power. Congress has promised to restore the original Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act and Forest Rights Act. This is going to encourage farmers to engage themselves more in farming related activities. This increases the productivity of the agricultural sector which is good for the economy.
Congress has promised to launch MGNREGA 3.0, which is supposed to increase the number of working days from 100 to 150. INC aims at connecting all villages and habitations with a population of 250 with a road under the PM Gram Sadak Yojana. The Rahul Gandhi led UPA has plans of passing the Right to Homestead Act to offer a homestead for each household. As a result, housing industry would see a big development which is good for the economy.
SEE ALSO: Integrated Rural Development Programme
INC has promised to provide reservation of 33% for seats in LokSabha and VidhanSabha for women. They have also planned to establish a separate detective agency to investigate crimes against women and children.
INC has said in the manifesto that it targets to achieve a growth of 3% in the GDP by 2020-21, achieve savings of 40% of GDP and a gross capital formation of around 35% of GDP. INC looks at attracting each of the Fortune 500 companies to set up businesses in India. This would increase the number of jobs which is certainly good for the economy. They have also promised to abolish Angel Tax. This is surely going to boost our economy if implemented.
INC has promised to enhance India’s share of the manufacturing sector from the current level of 16% of GDP to 25% within 5 years. Its main intention is to make India a major manufacturing hub in the World.
INC has promised to establish a National Council related to foreign policy. It aims to make India a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the nuclear suppliers group. INC also has plans toimprove diplomatic ties with other nations.
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