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Seasoned Investments Research Team | Posted On Tuesday, October 14,2008, 02:31 PM

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Seasoned Investments



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It would be an understated one-liner that we are in a dynamically changing society. The rate of change of dynamics is not governed by any physicist unfortunately. Here, we have the global economy at stake. Ironically, the best minds in the business are being accused for the present state that we are into. The growing rate of concern for the same is both gratifying and also an indicator for the desperation that is being built all around the world. Last ten days have seen the pink papers mostly inked in reviewing the tough call which Paulson took.

The signs of rescue are still not visible in the sky full of bail-out mist and other such tools of myopic vision. Resting one’s hopes on a former Goldman executive wouldn’t have been a bad option during ordinary times. But that’s the irony. Goldman has been known more for its extraordinary flairs. It’s definitely one such moment where that revered prudence will be tested.

The much awaited US bail-out was released after being coaxed by Bush. It seemed like Henry Paulson’s maiden gift to the already tax-wary US citizens. The bill having been defeated twice, had gained lot of undue attention globally by now. The repercussion in the market was also witnessed. 777 had for the first time, nothing lucky written on it. Though such numbers will just thicken the history books, the future still looks tense. It gives a funny feeling that the economy, or for that matter, the confidence is yet to touch its 52 week low mark.




**9-12-08 CLOSE**    


**9-19-08 AFT**






































If we take a look at the above figures during the given time frame, it’d seem that we didn’t miss much. Unfortunately, it didn’t feel that way when we were amidst that week of action. So it clearly sends the message across how violently volatile things have been.

The Indian party tried to cleanse its lenses with the aid of a softer FII policy and another CRR cut. An even sharper correction came just 3 days post that event. Now, there are talks on banning short sell even in the Indian market to emit positive vibes for the investors. Similar efforts are being put in the money markets too as euro looks to be in no position to overtake the much talked about dollar, even in the mid ranged future. The dollar rose against all of the most-active currencies except the yen as demand for U.S. currency funding increased, reflecting banks' reluctance to lend.

Now having been registered in to the books as being one of the worst financial crises, what prospects do the rugged retail investors have with them. Is it too early to say that the worst is over or do we have some more nasty surprises left? That is what we call timing the market which only a few have been able to master. So is it only hopelessness that these retail people take back home from here? I feel there’s lot more. It’s amazing to see that none of the money-wise portals are promoting the small cap value buys. It is an important time to revise our financial goals. Value based buying would be the obvious choice when you have a situation like this. But then it can be tricky as to what is the right value for a company.

So as we start on a macro perspective, we’d realize that we are at the wrong turn of the cycle. As we get corrected and escalate to the brighter side, there would be an appreciation of our assets. So while looking into future, it would be best to focus on the companies who have their business models based on the demanding future. It’s not like building a bridge to somewhere but to stay focused and understand the projections. The most talked about of the lot is the alternate-source-of-energy business. The most promising source to be recognized so far happens to be the solar power. Companies like First Solar and Vestas have already been hitting the news circuit and have also been termed as a possible recession hedge as they churn out 140% and 60% annualized returns respectively. We have our own Indian counterparts in the form of Webel Solar. ICSA is a decent pick in the technology sector. The company is into providing technological solutions for power applications like ‘distribution transformer monitoring systems’, ‘theft detection device’, ‘intelligent automatic meter reading (IAMR)’, ‘remote street light control systems’, pipeline applications like ‘intelligent cathodic protection system (Icap)’ and infrastructure for power. Take solutions is another healthy pick which is a leading international business technology company with products backed by a strong domain expertise to provide cost-effective comprehensive solutions for businesses. With solutions and technology expertise in Life Sciences, Supply Chain Management, Business Process Management, and Business Intelligence, TAKE’s track record in delivering world-class solutions throughout global markets is well proven. Few other companies which represent such strong business models are Bayer Crop, Indsil Electrosmelt, and Nectar Life and so on.

Thus it becomes a responsibility to sharpen your vision and take a chance with the future. It certainly has a lot to offer. Forms of doing business would keep changing though. We have already witnessed what it takes to replace a Sony walkman with an Apple Ipod. So stay in the hunt before the bull comes out raging. It’s your tryst with the future!!! But stay sensible and be reasonable in your picks.

Greed is fine. It is stupidity that hurts!!!

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